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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple formula. It frequently functions as a form of apology. We regret we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who oversaw the biggest improvement wins the award. However, it creates an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior leadership or merely the biggest upset.

However the latest race is profoundly unique. The list of nominees is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with reigning division winners fading and recent strugglers ascending in unison. During an normal year, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in this turbulent and fun year, he's competing with several other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the ideal ballot should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to showcase his rare talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that creates wide-open targets consistently. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been capable to conjure magic out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually each gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the organization with the level of expectations he did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a normal season, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. Yet this is not a typical year!

Where Johnson's case runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. But he comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has nailed the leadership stuff, which was not a certainty following his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, he bet on newbies. From the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason collapse caused the team stumbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting reliable ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the season in October. Instead, it made it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still