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New Yorkers will discover the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will decide who governs and protects the country's largest city at a moment when Donald Trump has vowed to deploy military troops to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democrats against each other. The election has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by accusations of racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two main contenders that could have major implications for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the young progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has attracted global notice. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the ex- New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the support of wealthy contributors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who defeated his opponent in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and promised to freeze rent for about two million city residents, has led his rival by double-digits in every poll conducted in October, and it is very much the younger man's race to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who resigned as governor in recent years amid accusations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has criticized Mamdani's objectives as unachievable, and in the final stretch laughed as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was widely condemned as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that featured a slew of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani freeing a convicts.

This represents a rather grubby conclusion to an race that could be critical to the direction that the party, floundering in its reaction to the former president's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If the progressive secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his campaign will be compelled to address a message that has appealed to voters' frustration at economic disparity, inflation and the establishment. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to adopt at least some of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the fresh face has generated an excitement within the Democratic ranks perhaps not seen since the Vermont senator ran for president eight years ago.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been predicted to win easily in the June primary, achieve a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could reinforce national Democrats' current model of cautious, lackluster opposition – a strategy that has infuriated grassroots members. A New York defeat of Mamdani's optimistic platform could convince party leaders that the best plan is to stick to the political center – even as polls show the present version of the party is widely disliked across the country.

Campaign Energy

Residents of New York seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. Mamdani's engaging content on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for the city and his readiness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has attracted an force of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or new participants.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, 67, continues to fight. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

Following extensive launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might stick, Cuomo has concentrated on targeting the candidate directly. He has labelled Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an "radical", and appeared on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo asserted New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It reached a nadir recently, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

The line of attack mirrors much of what the former president, who has deployed the national guard to the capital and threatened to take similar action to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that is expected. A set of wealthy residents, including some who donated to Trump in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo elected, as other powerful voices have pressured Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should not have reached to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, started his campaign for mayor in October 2024, few had known him, and in truth, barely anyone even paid attention.

Cuomo, by comparison, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who seemingly held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had married a Kennedy and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became New York governor in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a brighter outlook of the city's direction than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Still, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in recent days, after footage surfaced suggesting him suggesting the New York police department and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in 2023. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was questioning cooperative programs between the city police and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, Mamdani seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his response to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first ran for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our faith.”

Addressing the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd