Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
